NOWCASTING! New Years Storms To Bring Rain/Snow Mix

Well, the models have been up and down with this storm. The NAM has trended warmer, the CMC is a little cooler, and the GFS is the same. They just cannot get a grip. Well, for one thing, we are done with the models. It's time for NOWCASTING! Let's take a look at the current radar:

That's pretty impressive. I didn't think that there would be that much precip. We can get some snow out of this but we need temps to stay where they are right now or drop. It will be hard for them to drop because of the cloud cover over us right now. Temps are in the high 20s Pine Barrens to near freezing at the beaches. I have observed some temps rise which is not good if you want snow. If temps can hold steady we may be able to get a couple of inches of snow. See my map below.

Everything should begin around 4 or 5am. It will be a fast mover so when the ball drops and fireworks go off it should be clear or ending. Here is my forecast:

Again, not much. Mostly a mix of rain and snow to the east of the Winslow area. Immediate shore might even changeover to rain. West of Winslow will see snow changing over to a mix. Everyone might see a quick changeover to all rain at one point. It won't be big, but roads may get a little slick. Overnight into 2010, there will be a lull in the action (Ball dropping and fireworks look good right now, temps low 30s) and then more snow/rain showers will pick up. Not as much as the first wave, only maybe a dusting possible. Mummers look good right now with some sprinkles or flurries and temps mid 30s. Flyers in Boston will see some showers with a chance of a flurry and temps mid 30s.

I think this is a good forecast unless the storm changes overnight. It will have to be watched.

Updates through tomorrow at www.twitter.com/sjwcmain.

Model Mania! 2 Storms: 1st Is Nothing, 2nd Is Snow?

Well the models are kind of starting to get a better idea of what will happen this New Years Eve/Day. But they are still all over the place. We know there are two events. We know that the first coastal low is not the thing to focus on, it's the clipper-like system behind it. Here are the 0z runs from this evening followed by my thoughts.

0z NAM

A coastal low moves by to our east and gives us a flurry or sprinkle at hour 42. Not much here but it seems colder. It also looks farther east.

This picture is hour 66 of the 0z NAM. South Jersey is picking up some light snow. This comes from a clipper-like system that passes through our area. The 18z NAM showed the clipper a little farther north with more precip but also more warm air. The snow does not come from a coastal storm. The clipper and coastal do meet up but not until out in the Atlantic, too late for any big nor'easter snow. Even Maine misses out on the big snows on this run. It looks too far east. There is also no high, not even for any big Maine snow. That's why there is not a big phase.

0z GFS

A hour 42 the coastal low brings some rain maybe some mix to the north. This would not be our snow event.

The picture above is hour 66 of the 0z GFS. Hours 60-78 are showing some light snow over us. Again, this is from a second system and not the coastal storm. It does phase with another coastal but too late for us. It does give Maine some good snows.

My Thoughts

We do know there will be two weather events from Tuesday to Saturday. The first event which is the coastal low will come up the coast Thursday Evening (New Years Eve) and bring some rain showers with a mix possible to the north. The second event will come through our area kind of like a clipper system on Friday afternoon. It looks mostly snow but may have a hard time sticking because surface temps look to be warm. I think a dusting to an inch is possible from this but we will have to continue to watch the next model runs as we are continuing to get closer to the event. Check back to my last blog for my full thoughts.

Thoughts On New Years: Focus On Clipper-Like Disturbance

We know that there will be 3 systems. We know one will be a clipper and the other two will be coastal lows. Not all of them will bring us snow though. We are starting to better understand what will happen as we get closer to the event. It looks as though any snow we get will not be from a coastal storm, but more from a clipper-like system. The first coastal low will pass by us and bring some rain showers with a flurry or two possibly mixed in. Then another coastal low will pass to our east but no precip should come from that. While that passes to our east a clipper-like disturbance will move through. That is our chance for snow. Now the models started to hint at this yesterday at 18z but now it's catching on a little better. Today's 18z NAM and GFS both showed this. The NAM was cooler with more snow and the GFS was a little warmer but still had snow. We should wait and make sure the 0z runs tonight show this as well. Here is a map to illustrate it a bit better:

The clipper will come through and then phase with the second coastal low. Unfortunately, the phase will take place too late and it will blow up over coastal Maine. One thing not supporting snow is there is no cold, Arctic high north of us over Canada. But since the snow chances are from a clipper, the clipper will bring it's own cold air and a high isn't really needed. For snow from a nor'easter, you would need a nice Arctic high. But that is not the case this time.

Right now, I am not going to release a snow map, but I think 1-2" maybe 3" is possible especially closer to the Delaware River. It will probably start as some rain and then change to snow. The farther north and west you go, the faster the changeover will occur. These are just details and we will have to iron them out in the next day or two.

As of right now, any snow will happen midday or afternoon on New Years day. The rain showers will move through New Years Eve so be sure to bring an umbrella to any New Years Eve plans.

Model 411: New Years Storm Potential 12z Runs

Model 411 is a new way of discussing the weather models. We will discuss them during big storm potentials. For right now we will be discussing the GFS and NAM.

The models have been all over the place with this New Years storm. We know there will be 3 low systems: a clipper and 2 coastal lows. How and if they come together or phase is the million dollar question. I will talk about that in my discussion that will come out a little later today. First, lets go over the 0z/12z models and see what they think will happen. Remember this is not what I think will happen, this is what the models are showing.

12z NAM

The coastal system #1 goes by and drops some showers with maybe some snow mixed in. It looks as if the clipper phases with the second coastal system but too late for any significant snow for us. It should bomb out over Maine. Just some light flurries for us from the clipper. Note the high too far north. That is why it phases late.

0z GFS

I wanted to show the 0z GFS because it shows the coastal #1 go by and give us some showers and then the clipper come through and give us some light to moderate snow.

Then the clipper phases with coastal # 2 but too late. It bombs over Maine with heavy snow. Again, note the high coming in too late.

12z GFS

This is similar to the 0z GFS but the snow is lighter. Coastal #1 goes by and brings showers and then the clipper brings some light snow. Again, it phases too late over Maine and the high is not in the right spot.

***

I will have my thinking out later this evening. Just to preview, I think Coastal #1 will go by and bring us some showers. Then, the clipper will come through and bring us some light snow showers on Friday. The clipper and coastal #2 will blow up over Maine when they phase but too late.

Update Tomorrow: Models Now Hinting At Some Snow

I will have a full update tomorrow morning with details on the possibility of New Years snow. The 18z and 0z GFS and 0z NAM have been hinting at different solutions and even a little snow. Check back tomorrow! Should be out before 12 noon.

Looking Through The Rest Of 2009

Most of the area saw a White Christmas today as at least 1" of snow is still on the ground in most spots. But alot of that snow will wash away or even melt tonight and tomorrow as heavy rain and warmer temps move into the area. Rain is falling right now and should continue until about 2pm tomorrow. After that Sunday will still be warm but sunny with highs in the upper 40s. Monday will cool way down back into the 30s. Bringing in that cold air may be a small system bringing some snow showers. A band of snow may develop with an inch or two possible. It shouldn't be much right now but we will continue to watch it. The next storm is the big one! Another nor'easter/coastal storm (similar to the one from 12/19) is expected pass by us on New Year's Eve or Day. It could stay off the coast, come up the coast, or go inland. I think may be another big storm but we will have to continue to watch it. But, there are many factors supporting snow. Here are some:

• Water temps have dropped into the low 40s
  
• We are in El Nino
  
• We are in a good pattern (Midwest storm then East storm then Midwest storm then East storm (and right now there is a storm in the Midwest))
  
• We are in a good setup (systems from Gulf of Mexico phase with systems coming from west)
  
• Arctic cold air north of us
  
• Large snow pack north of us

I think the New Years storm will really have to be watched. The rest of the winter will be really interesting.

Lastly, have a very Merry Christmas, Season's Greetings, and Happy New Year from South Jersey Weather Central.

Merry Christmas, Season's Greetings, and Happy New Year...

...from South Jersey Weather Central.

P.S. Track Santa Claus throughout the world. Just go to http://www.noradsanta.org/en/index.html to see where he is now!